CR141 — Governance Impact Verification Benchmark

Plain text for AI agents and crawlers. No JavaScript, no graphics.

CR141 — Governance Impact Verification Benchmark
================================================

What this is
------------
CR141 verifies the account-level consequences of DeFi governance parameter
changes before execution. For an executed governance proposal that changes one
or more collateral factors, CR141 recomputes every affected account's
collateral buffer at the block immediately before execution and reports which
accounts cross a critical threshold.

This is governance impact verification, not governance forecasting. The input
is a change that already executed. Post-execution data is used only as the
answer key.

Validation result
-----------------
Proposals replayed ................ 28
Collateral factor changes ......... 141
Analyzed accounts ................. 89,645
Predicted state transitions ....... 474
Observed state transitions ........ 474
Difference ........................ 0
Proposals with exact set equality . 28/28
Proposals with a non-empty set .... 14/28

The falsification criterion is exact set equality. One mismatch would demote
the result. There is no averaging and no error tolerance.

Proposal index (one line per proposal)
--------------------------------------
pid | exec block | markets | targets | predicted | observed | exact
44 | 12370865 | 1 (cREP) | 1000 | 6 | 6 | yes
56 | 13039770 | 5 (CAAVE,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CYFI) | 223 | 0 | 0 | yes
66 | 13583937 | 6 (CAAVE,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CUSDC,CYFI) | 5334 | 0 | 0 | yes
69 | 13635170 | 4 (CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CYFI) | 484 | 0 | 0 | yes
71 | 13699346 | 4 (CBAT,CDAI,CETH,CZRX) | 8584 | 9 | 9 | yes
72 | 13765755 | 3 (CCOMP,CUNI,cWBTC) | 3157 | 0 | 0 | yes
74 | 13841132 | 3 (CBAT,CLINK,CWBTC) | 3334 | 0 | 0 | yes
81 | 14030172 | 1 (CETH) | 6937 | 0 | 0 | yes
85 | 14292829 | 6 (CAAVE,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CUNI,CYFI) | 1635 | 0 | 0 | yes
90 | 14430843 | 3 (CMKR,CSUSHI,CZRX) | 1675 | 0 | 0 | yes
98 | 14563136 | 2 (CSUSHI,CYFI) | 170 | 0 | 0 | yes
103 | 14700684 | 2 (CAAVE,CMKR) | 205 | 0 | 0 | yes
107 | 14879331 | 5 (CDAI,CLINK,CMKR,CUSDC,CYFI) | 7332 | 0 | 0 | yes
108 | 14959593 | 5 (CAAVE,CLINK,CSUSHI,CUSDC,CYFI) | 5112 | 0 | 0 | yes
111 | 15077600 | 2 (CDAI,CUSDC) | 7055 | 0 | 0 | yes
133 | 15911677 | 1 (CSUSHI) | 168 | 0 | 0 | yes
186 | 18385597 | 7 (CAAVE,CCOMP,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CYFI,CZRX) | 2674 | 21 | 21 | yes
190 | 18519451 | 7 (CAAVE,CCOMP,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CYFI,CZRX) | 2666 | 19 | 19 | yes
193 | 18612241 | 7 (CAAVE,CCOMP,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CYFI,CZRX) | 2660 | 21 | 21 | yes
200 | 18762889 | 7 (CAAVE,CCOMP,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CYFI,CZRX) | 2641 | 22 | 22 | yes
213 | 19062517 | 8 (CAAVE,CBAT,CCOMP,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CYFI,CZRX) | 3320 | 45 | 45 | yes
214 | 19161536 | 8 (CAAVE,CBAT,CCOMP,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CYFI,CZRX) | 3317 | 47 | 47 | yes
217 | 19262734 | 8 (CAAVE,CBAT,CCOMP,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CYFI,CZRX) | 3312 | 33 | 33 | yes
243 | 19760928 | 9 (CAAVE,CBAT,CCOMP,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CUNI,CYFI,CZRX) | 3596 | 38 | 38 | yes
252 | 19960052 | 8 (CAAVE,CCOMP,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CUNI,CYFI,CZRX) | 2926 | 35 | 35 | yes
295 | 20470106 | 1 (CCOMP) | 1023 | 53 | 53 | yes
301 | 20519734 | 9 (CAAVE,CBAT,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CUNI,CUSDC,CYFI,CZRX) | 5468 | 65 | 65 | yes
352 | 21063478 | 9 (CAAVE,CBAT,CLINK,CMKR,CSUSHI,CUNI,CWBTC,CYFI,CZRX) | 3637 | 60 | 60 | yes

Method
------
1. Population: accounts that entered a changed market AND carried debt.
2. Before: collateral buffer per account at block b-1, fixed-point integer
   arithmetic (1e18), no sampling, no Monte Carlo.
3. After: the same accounts recomputed with the executed collateral factor.
4. Verdict: predicted set vs observed set, compared as sets.

Route A divides by the previous collateral factor and truncates in integers;
Route B does not truncate. Every disagreement between the two routes is that
truncation artefact. The flip sets agree exactly.

Canonical definition
--------------------
CR141 verifies the account-level consequences of DeFi governance parameter
changes before execution and has been validated on 28 historical Compound
governance proposals with 474 predicted and 474 observed account state
transitions.

Terminology used without variation
----------------------------------
Governance Impact Analysis
Governance Impact Verification
Collateral Factor Changes
Proposal Impact Analysis
Counterfactual Governance Analysis
DeFi Risk Modeling
Account State Transition

Pages
-----
Dashboard ......................... https://cr141.com/
About ............................. https://cr141.com/about
Dataset ........................... https://cr141.com/dataset
API ............................... https://cr141.com/api
llms.txt .......................... https://cr141.com/llms.txt

API surface
-----------
Status: OpenAPI document public, host not bound. No key, no token, no account.
OpenAPI 3.1: https://cr141.com/openapi.json (4 paths, 19 schemas, captured examples).
Self-hosted: docker compose up -d -> http://localhost:8000/docs

GET  /evidence/status       no parameters. Returns EvidenceStatus.
GET  /proposal/{pid}        pid: integer (path). Returns Proposal.
GET  /proposal/{pid}/flips  pid: integer (path); attribution: boolean (query);
                            limit: integer (query); cursor: string (query). Returns FlipPage.
POST /simulate              body {"changes":[{"pid":int,"market":str,"cf_after":num}]}.
                            Returns SimulateResult.

Limits, stated plainly
----------------------
Compound only. Executed proposals only. Fixed block state. No price path, no
liquidation sequence, no forecast. The dashboard's what-if scenarios are frozen
pre-computed counterfactuals, not live simulations.

Build: cr141-v1.3.2-openapi at commit 412d627.